Ponce Financial Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
1 Week
19.67%
1 Month
23.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1340 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.2852 | 9.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6990 | 21.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0075 | -0.14 |
| δpower | 1.6537 | 5.67*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1340 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2852 | 9.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6990 | 21.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0075 | -0.14 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6537 | 5.67*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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