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Ponce Financial Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

18.44%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

19.67%

increased by 1.72%

1 Month

23.09%

increased by 5.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ponce Financial Group Inc APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifeδ = 1.65 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1340
3.44***
αARCH0.2852
9.04***
βGARCH0.6990
21.50***
γleverage-0.0075
-0.14
δpower1.6537
5.67***

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1340
3.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2852
9.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6990
21.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0075
-0.14
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6537
5.67***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days