Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.70%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
16.64%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
19.57%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.2540 | 0.88 |
| αscore | 0.1179 | 8.15*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9810 | 45.77*** |
| νDF | 3.5674 | 4.27*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.2540 | 0.88 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1179 | 8.15*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9810 | 45.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5674 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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