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Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.98%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Week

18.74%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

21.21%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.2540
0.88
αARCH0.1179
8.15***
βGARCH0.9810
45.77***
νDF3.5674
4.27***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.2540
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1179
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9810
45.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5674
4.27***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days