Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.98%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
18.74%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
21.21%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.2540 | 0.88 |
| αARCH | 0.1179 | 8.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9810 | 45.77*** |
| νDF | 3.5674 | 4.27*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2540 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1179 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9810 | 45.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5674 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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