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Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.13%

decreased by 1.72%

1 Week

23.59%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Month

25.12%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ponce Financial Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.3791
0.88
αARCH0.1184
8.22***
βGARCH0.9811
45.71***
νDF3.5293
4.41***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3791
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1184
8.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9811
45.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5293
4.41***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days