V-Lab
Onity Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
48.93%
increased by 3.15%
1 Week
49.43%
increased by 3.65%
1 Month
51.09%
increased by 5.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-lifev = 3.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.9196 | 0.97 |
| αARCH | 0.0914 | 7.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9777 | 42.77*** |
| νDF | 3.4493 | 3.79*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.9196 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9777 | 42.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4493 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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