V-Lab
Onity Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
39.29%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
41.10%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
45.06%
increased by 5.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9224 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1534 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7596 | 26.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0577 | 0.65 |
| γ2 | -0.1395 | -1.05 |
| γ3 | 0.1136 | 1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0167 | 0.13 |
| γ5 | -0.1539 | -1.41 |
| γ6 | 0.3240 | 3.39*** |
| γ7 | -0.4941 | -4.23*** |
| γ8 | 0.4709 | 4.00*** |
| γ9 | -0.3187 | -3.40*** |
| γ10 | 0.1754 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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