V-Lab
Onity Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
46.42%
decreased by 4.12%
1 Week
47.07%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Month
48.52%
decreased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9202 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1555 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7536 | 25.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0577 | 0.65 |
| γ2 | -0.1354 | -1.01 |
| γ3 | 0.0991 | 0.87 |
| γ4 | 0.0436 | 0.33 |
| γ5 | -0.1923 | -1.76* |
| γ6 | 0.3684 | 3.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.5294 | -4.53*** |
| γ8 | 0.4854 | 4.28*** |
| γ9 | -0.3168 | -3.43*** |
| γ10 | 0.1684 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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