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V-Lab

Onity Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

44.62%

increased by 0.57%

1 Week

45.44%

increased by 1.39%

1 Month

47.03%

increased by 2.98%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Onity Group Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 25, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8760
5.88***
αARCH0.1372
7.10***
βGARCH0.7464
23.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0861
1.44
γ2-0.2252
-2.64***
γ30.3014
5.02***
γ4-0.3212
-3.98***
γ50.3418
3.75***
γ6-0.3273
-3.67***
γ70.2057
2.66***
γ8-0.1114
-1.52
γ90.0818
1.54

0.884

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8760
5.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1372
7.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7464
23.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0861
1.44
γ2-0.2252
-2.64***
γ30.3014
5.02***
γ4-0.3212
-3.98***
γ50.3418
3.75***
γ6-0.3273
-3.67***
γ70.2057
2.66***
γ8-0.1114
-1.52
γ90.0818
1.54

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days