V-Lab
Ocugen Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
75.26%
1 Week
82.44%
1 Month
93.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 101% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2804 | 10.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5984 | 37.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1412 | -4.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.7162 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9993 | 0.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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