Ocugen Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
75.87%
increased by 7.94%
1 Week
82.62%
increased by 14.69%
1 Month
93.94%
increased by 26.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 111 | |
| αARCH | 0.2766 | 2.19** |
| βGARCH | 0.5960 | 8.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.1457 | -1.18 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.0409 | 1.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9894 | 8.30*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.800
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2766 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5960 | 8.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1457 | -1.18 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.0409 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9894 | 8.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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