V-Lab
Ocugen Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
72.29%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Week
77.02%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
83.04%
increased by 7.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6078 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2220 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5831 | 8.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0469 | 0.07 |
| γ2 | -1.0991 | -1.02 |
| γ3 | 3.3389 | 3.88*** |
| γ4 | -4.2618 | -4.55*** |
| γ5 | 2.8713 | 2.89*** |
| γ6 | -1.9060 | -1.89* |
| γ7 | 1.8399 | 1.72* |
| γ8 | -1.1723 | -1.28 |
| γ9 | 0.5345 | 0.67 |
| γ10 | -0.2223 | -0.44 |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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