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V-Lab

Song Hong Aluminium Jsc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

27.92%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

32.28%

increased by 4.22%

1 Month

37.90%

increased by 9.84%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Song Hong Aluminium Jsc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 6, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0395
10.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2067
7.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6193
11.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0881
-3.70***
γ20.1329
4.29***

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days