V-Lab
Song Hong Aluminium Jsc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
24.91%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
28.45%
increased by 2.75%
1 Month
38.92%
increased by 13.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 6, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 39.1155 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1463 | 28.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9897 | 396.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6053 | 7.39*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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