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V-Lab

Song Hong Aluminium Jsc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

24.91%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

28.45%

increased by 2.75%

1 Month

38.92%

increased by 13.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Song Hong Aluminium Jsc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 6, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.1155
4.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1463
28.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9897
396.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6053
7.39***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days