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PT Esta Indonesia TBK GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

259.42%

decreased by 124.29%

1 Week

328.60%

decreased by 55.11%

1 Month

349.82%

decreased by 33.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PT Esta Indonesia TBK GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 8, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.01 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst503.6559
0.95
αARCH0.1833
0.91
βGARCH0.3752
0.58
νDF2.0118
46.53***

0.375

Persistence

1d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

503.6559
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1833
0.91
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3752
0.58
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0118
46.53***

Persistence:

0.375

Half-life:

1 days