V-Lab
PT Esta Indonesia TBK GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
259.42%
decreased by 124.29%
1 Week
328.60%
decreased by 55.11%
1 Month
349.82%
decreased by 33.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.01 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 503.6559 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.1833 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.3752 | 0.58 |
| νDF | 2.0118 | 46.53*** |
0.375
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 503.6559 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1833 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3752 | 0.58 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0118 | 46.53*** |
Persistence:
0.375
Half-life:
1 days
Other PT Esta Indonesia TBK Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities