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V-Lab

PT Esta Indonesia TBK Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

35.26%

decreased by 3.78%

1 Week

37.57%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Month

38.10%

decreased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PT Esta Indonesia TBK S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 8, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2243
3.54***
αARCH0.1509
1.20
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ112.1427
0.53
γ28.8260
0.24
γ3-68.0134
-2.60***
γ490.6672
3.52***
γ5-57.6514
-1.86*
γ620.4005
0.66
γ7-22.2896
-0.89
γ824.0099
1.51

0.151

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2243
3.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1509
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ112.1427
0.53
γ28.8260
0.24
γ3-68.0134
-2.60***
γ490.6672
3.52***
γ5-57.6514
-1.86*
γ620.4005
0.66
γ7-22.2896
-0.89
γ824.0099
1.51

Persistence:

0.151

Half-life:

0 days