V-Lab
PT Esta Indonesia TBK Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.26%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Week
37.57%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
38.10%
decreased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2243 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1509 | 1.20 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 12.1427 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | 8.8260 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -68.0134 | -2.60*** |
| γ4 | 90.6672 | 3.52*** |
| γ5 | -57.6514 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | 20.4005 | 0.66 |
| γ7 | -22.2896 | -0.89 |
| γ8 | 24.0099 | 1.51 |
0.151
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2243 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1509 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 12.1427 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | 8.8260 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -68.0134 | -2.60*** |
| γ4 | 90.6672 | 3.52*** |
| γ5 | -57.6514 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | 20.4005 | 0.66 |
| γ7 | -22.2896 | -0.89 |
| γ8 | 24.0099 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.151
Half-life:
0 days
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