V-Lab
PT Esta Indonesia TBK GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
48.42%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
53.65%
increased by 3.87%
1 Month
58.75%
increased by 8.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.6933 | 1.71* |
| αARCH | 0.2717 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.5703 | 2.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.1856 | -0.84 |
0.749
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6933 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2717 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5703 | 2.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1856 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.749
Half-life:
2 days
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