V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
22.81%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
24.53%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
27.91%
increased by 3.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 203% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 203% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0572 | 3.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7668 | 27.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.1161 | 2.94*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.3894 | 2.43** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7606 | 6.11*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.882
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 3.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7668 | 27.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1161 | 2.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3894 | 2.43** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7606 | 6.11*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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