V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
31.62%
increased by 1.01%
1 Week
32.45%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
35.54%
increased by 4.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 45.8732 | 8.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 70.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 3,107.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6570 | 43.44*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
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