V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.87%
1 Week
25.89%
1 Month
29.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 47.2388 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.1022 | 17.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 851.28*** |
| νDF | 3.7158 | 10.24*** |
0.998
Persistence302d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 47.2388 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1022 | 17.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 851.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7158 | 10.24*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
302 days
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