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MVB Financial Corp. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

24.87%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

25.89%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

29.56%

increased by 2.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MVB Financial Corp. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 20, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~302 daysv = 3.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst47.2388
2.06**
αARCH0.1022
17.43***
βGARCH0.9977
851.28***
νDF3.7158
10.24***

0.998

Persistence

302d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

47.2388
2.06**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1022
17.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
851.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7158
10.24***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

302 days