V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.88%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
27.77%
increased by 0.92%
1 Month
29.91%
increased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6665 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1376 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7879 | 27.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8328 | 1.33 |
| γ2 | -0.5842 | -0.63 |
| γ3 | -0.4125 | -0.56 |
| γ4 | 0.9703 | 1.40 |
| γ5 | -2.2840 | -2.81*** |
| γ6 | 2.8572 | 3.50*** |
| γ7 | -2.0157 | -2.94*** |
| γ8 | 0.5066 | 0.74 |
| γ9 | 0.3233 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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