V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
22.29%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
23.18%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
25.40%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3444 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1306 | 5.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8049 | 28.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.5895 | 0.96 |
| γ2 | -0.2951 | -0.32 |
| γ3 | -0.4496 | -0.62 |
| γ4 | 0.8595 | 1.25 |
| γ5 | -2.0484 | -2.47** |
| γ6 | 2.6545 | 3.05*** |
| γ7 | -1.9348 | -2.77*** |
| γ8 | 0.4082 | 0.60 |
| γ9 | 0.4944 | 1.00 |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3444 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1306 | 5.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8049 | 28.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.5895 | 0.96 |
| γ2 | -0.2951 | -0.32 |
| γ3 | -0.4496 | -0.62 |
| γ4 | 0.8595 | 1.25 |
| γ5 | -2.0484 | -2.47** |
| γ6 | 2.6545 | 3.05*** |
| γ7 | -1.9348 | -2.77*** |
| γ8 | 0.4082 | 0.60 |
| γ9 | 0.4944 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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