V-Lab
MVB Financial Corp. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
21.85%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
22.98%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
25.67%
increased by 2.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5077 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1334 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7966 | 28.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.7153 | 1.16 |
| γ2 | -0.4475 | -0.49 |
| γ3 | -0.4203 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | 0.8906 | 1.30 |
| γ5 | -2.1278 | -2.61*** |
| γ6 | 2.7206 | 3.24*** |
| γ7 | -1.9476 | -2.83*** |
| γ8 | 0.4084 | 0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.4679 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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