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V-Lab

Litigation Capital Management Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

201.28%

increased by 2.65%

1 Week

200.16%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

195.82%

decreased by 2.81%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Litigation Capital Management Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 19, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.0848
6.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0792
55.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9930
1,077.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7774
80.22***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days