V-Lab
Litigation Capital Management Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
201.28%
increased by 2.65%
1 Week
200.16%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
195.82%
decreased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.0848 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 55.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 1,077.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7774 | 80.22*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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