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V-Lab

Litigation Capital Management Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

137.18%

decreased by 10.68%

1 Week

132.86%

decreased by 15.00%

1 Month

130.21%

decreased by 17.65%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Litigation Capital Management Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 19, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0789
4.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1153
2.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4642
2.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.0574
0.73
γ2-2.4653
-1.11
γ34.1352
2.17**
γ4-6.5719
-3.37***
γ57.5472
5.00***
γ6-6.2251
-3.66***
γ73.3267
2.37**
γ81.3734
0.83
γ9-3.9452
-1.93*
γ101.5749
1.00

Persistence:

0.580

Half-life:

1 days