V-Lab
Litigation Capital Management Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
137.18%
decreased by 10.68%
1 Week
132.86%
decreased by 15.00%
1 Month
130.21%
decreased by 17.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0789 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1153 | 2.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4642 | 2.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0574 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -2.4653 | -1.11 |
| γ3 | 4.1352 | 2.17** |
| γ4 | -6.5719 | -3.37*** |
| γ5 | 7.5472 | 5.00*** |
| γ6 | -6.2251 | -3.66*** |
| γ7 | 3.3267 | 2.37** |
| γ8 | 1.3734 | 0.83 |
| γ9 | -3.9452 | -1.93* |
| γ10 | 1.5749 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.580
Half-life:
1 days
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