V-Lab
Litigation Capital Management Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
148.64%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Week
148.42%
decreased by 2.45%
1 Month
147.54%
decreased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 253 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 141% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1084 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0257 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9534 | 344.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0363 | 4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
253 days
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