V-Lab
OMX Copenhagen 20 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.81%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
18.25%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
19.09%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 325% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 325% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0368 | 2.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7955 | 36.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1195 | 5.40*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0048 | 2.21** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0162 | 2.39** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9804 | 134.98*** |
0.892
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 2.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7955 | 36.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1195 | 5.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0048 | 2.21** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0162 | 2.39** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9804 | 134.98*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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