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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

36.94%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

37.79%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

39.77%

increased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.0100
0.72
βGARCH0.8428
22.04***
γleverage0.1277
3.25***
λ₁tau intercept5.4106
0.85
λ₂forecast adj.0.0309
0.18
λ₃tau persistence0.2031
0.28

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0100
0.72
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8428
22.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1277
3.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.4106
0.85
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0309
0.18
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2031
0.28

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days