V-Lab
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.94%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
37.79%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
39.77%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.0100 | 0.72 |
| βGARCH | 0.8428 | 22.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1277 | 3.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.4106 | 0.85 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0309 | 0.18 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2031 | 0.28 |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0100 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8428 | 22.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1277 | 3.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.4106 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0309 | 0.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2031 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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