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V-Lab

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

39.26%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

40.15%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

42.75%

increased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6215
8.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0607
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9584
157.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4469
0.72

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days