V-Lab
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
39.26%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
40.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
42.75%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6215 | 8.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 10.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9584 | 157.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4469 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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