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V-Lab

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.49%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Week

43.09%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

44.82%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 10.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.5061
2.14**
αARCH0.0641
2.54**
βGARCH0.9549
32.41***
νDF10.0090
0.20

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.5061
2.14**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0641
2.54**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9549
32.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.0090
0.20

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days