V-Lab
Global X Silver ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
54.76%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
54.66%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
54.29%
decreased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 220 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.2014 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 46.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 2,384.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6585 | 40.53*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
220 days
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