V-Lab
Harish Textile Engineers Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
58.28%
increased by 1.92%
1 Week
59.04%
increased by 2.68%
1 Month
57.07%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1573 | 4.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4316 | 3.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0367 | -0.96 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.8256 | 0.79 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2141 | 0.77 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5398 | 0.92 |
0.571
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1573 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4316 | 3.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0367 | -0.96 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8256 | 0.79 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2141 | 0.77 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5398 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.571
Half-life:
1 days
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