V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
122.99%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Week
123.26%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
124.32%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 219 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 133% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2636 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0254 | 10.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9712 | 287.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2177 | 7.74*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9104 | 23.11*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
219 days
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