V-Lab
Fidelity Multi-Alt Equity Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.20%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
9.36%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
9.60%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6353 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0372 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3936 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6064 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
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