V-Lab
Fidelity Multi-Alt Equity Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.02%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
8.83%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
8.67%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2937 | 17.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7000 | 9.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.700
Half-life:
2 days
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