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V-Lab

Fidelity Multi-Alt Equity Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

9.02%

increased by 0.71%

1 Week

8.83%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

8.67%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Fidelity Multi-Alt Equity Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2937
17.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1024
1.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7000
9.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.01

Persistence:

0.700

Half-life:

2 days