V-Lab
Integra Essentia Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
60.22%
1 Week
60.34%
1 Month
60.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0734 | 11.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8979 | 126.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0390 | 7.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.5962 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1365 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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