V-Lab
Integra Essentia Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
59.96%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
59.47%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Month
58.24%
decreased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2190 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1625 | 6.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7571 | 19.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3020 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | 0.0754 | 0.11 |
| γ3 | -1.1547 | -2.03** |
| γ4 | 2.3523 | 3.92*** |
| γ5 | -3.5791 | -5.53*** |
| γ6 | 3.4708 | 5.14*** |
| γ7 | -2.1397 | -3.26*** |
| γ8 | 0.9526 | 1.69* |
| γ9 | -0.3926 | -1.06 |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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