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Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.37%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

4.46%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

4.79%

increased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0015
6.59***
αARCH0.0985
6.35***
βGARCH0.8536
61.27***
γleverage0.0957
2.83***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0015
6.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0985
6.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8536
61.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0957
2.83***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-