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Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.55%

increased by 1.32%

1 Week

4.56%

increased by 1.33%

1 Month

4.59%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8655
5.29***
αARCH0.2207
10.70***
βGARCH0.7217
31.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0976
-1.15
γ20.1810
1.29
γ3-0.2137
-2.18**
γ40.3206
4.21***
γ5-0.3629
-4.74***
γ60.3381
4.12***
γ7-0.3127
-3.79***
γ80.3153
3.63***
γ9-0.3044
-3.84***
γ100.1764
3.51***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8655
5.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2207
10.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7217
31.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0976
-1.15
γ20.1810
1.29
γ3-0.2137
-2.18**
γ40.3206
4.21***
γ5-0.3629
-4.74***
γ60.3381
4.12***
γ7-0.3127
-3.79***
γ80.3153
3.63***
γ9-0.3044
-3.84***
γ100.1764
3.51***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days