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Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.68%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

2.97%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

3.50%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 144% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1383
29.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6304
35.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1988
15.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0005
4.22***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0714
5.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9249
61.47***

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days