Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.68%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
2.97%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
3.50%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 144% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1383 | 29.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6304 | 35.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1988 | 15.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 4.22*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0714 | 5.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9249 | 61.47*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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