Leonardo Drs Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
37.11%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
40.27%
increased by 2.05%
1 Month
45.15%
increased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.1708 | 5.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6978 | 17.00*** |
| γleverage | -0.0065 | -0.16 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.4956 | 2.88*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8599 | 7.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1708 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6978 | 17.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0065 | -0.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.4956 | 2.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8599 | 7.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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