Leonardo Drs Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
43.65%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
46.01%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
53.30%
increased by 8.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 22.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6943 | 61.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0043 | -0.43 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.8402 | 3.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8465 | 5.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.863
Half-life:
5 days
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