Leonardo Drs Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
42.67%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
45.14%
increased by 1.13%
1 Month
52.90%
increased by 8.89%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 3.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 29.3437 | 1.32 |
| αscore | 0.1034 | 11.40*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9799 | 65.03*** |
| νDF | 3.4618 | 5.98*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 29.3437 | 1.32 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1034 | 11.40*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9799 | 65.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4618 | 5.98*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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