V-Lab
Leonardo Drs Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
43.37%
increased by 5.09%
1 Week
45.91%
increased by 7.63%
1 Month
53.83%
increased by 15.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 3.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 28.9385 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.1042 | 11.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9786 | 62.87*** |
| νDF | 3.4646 | 5.83*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.9385 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1042 | 11.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9786 | 62.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4646 | 5.83*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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