V-Lab
Leonardo Drs Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
45.60%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
45.83%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Month
46.39%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8614 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1726 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7443 | 24.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0301 | -3.30*** |
| γ2 | 0.0504 | 3.73*** |
| γ3 | -0.0411 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.0325 | 4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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