V-Lab
Leonardo Drs Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
36.85%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
38.64%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
42.62%
increased by 4.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8570 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1751 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7413 | 24.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0310 | -3.34*** |
| γ2 | 0.0519 | 3.77*** |
| γ3 | -0.0419 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.0328 | 4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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