V-Lab
Leonardo Drs Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
34.25%
increased by 3.84%
1 Week
36.38%
increased by 5.97%
1 Month
41.04%
increased by 10.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8636 | 7.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1725 | 7.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7444 | 24.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0299 | -3.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.0500 | 3.72*** |
| γ3 | -0.0409 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.0325 | 4.82*** |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8636 | 7.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1725 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7444 | 24.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0299 | -3.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.0500 | 3.72*** |
| γ3 | -0.0409 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.0325 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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