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V-Lab

Leonardo Drs Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

33.35%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Week

35.52%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

40.29%

increased by 5.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo Drs Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8681
7.31***
αARCH0.1717
7.52***
βGARCH0.7467
24.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0295
-3.26***
γ20.0495
3.70***
γ3-0.0409
-4.49***
γ40.0328
4.90***

0.918

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8681
7.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1717
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7467
24.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0295
-3.26***
γ20.0495
3.70***
γ3-0.0409
-4.49***
γ40.0328
4.90***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days