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V-Lab

Defined Duration 5 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2.27%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

2.54%

increased by 0.65%

1 Month

3.23%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defined Duration 5 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6223
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5803
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4986
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0333
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4036
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0004

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days