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Defined Duration 5 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2.44%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.45%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

2.48%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defined Duration 5 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
8.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0744
5.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9683
108.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.6555
0.35

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

22 days