V-Lab
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
28.29%
1 Week
28.16%
1 Month
27.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 19.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9133 | 177.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0233 | -5.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0065 | 6.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0193 | 7.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9770 | 304.64*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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