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V-Lab

Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

28.29%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

28.16%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

27.68%

decreased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0783
19.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9133
177.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0233
-5.34***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0065
6.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0193
7.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9770
304.64***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days