V-Lab
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
28.65%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
28.56%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
28.21%
decreased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 52% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0164 | 12.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0763 | 13.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 248.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0262 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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