Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
23.17%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
23.16%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
23.11%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0160 | 3.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0752 | 3.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9299 | 62.58*** |
| γleverage | -0.0262 | -0.78 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0160 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 3.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9299 | 62.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0262 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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