V-Lab
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.57%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
25.52%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
25.33%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0164 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0760 | 3.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9288 | 62.15*** |
| γleverage | -0.0262 | -0.78 |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0164 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 3.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9288 | 62.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0262 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
Other Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs