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V-Lab

Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

28.65%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

28.56%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Month

28.21%

decreased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 52% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0164
12.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0763
13.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9287
248.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0262
-3.09***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days