V-Lab
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
29.09%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
29.01%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
28.72%
decreased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7889 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 37.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 753.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7935 | 6.39*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
Other Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs