Skip to main content
V-Lab

Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

28.44%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

28.35%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

28.02%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 51% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
12.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0637
15.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9284
246.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1042
-5.21***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9567
21.50***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days