V-Lab
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.44%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
28.35%
increased by 0.99%
1 Month
28.02%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 51% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0165 | 12.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 15.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9284 | 246.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1042 | -5.21*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9567 | 21.50*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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