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Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

23.75%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

23.64%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

23.23%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2949
6.81***
αARCH0.0622
4.47***
βGARCH0.9260
64.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0015
2.31**

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2949
6.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0622
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9260
64.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0015
2.31**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days