Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
23.75%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
23.64%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
23.23%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2949 | 6.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0622 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9260 | 64.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0015 | 2.31** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2949 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0622 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9260 | 64.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0015 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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