V-Lab
Cheetah NET Suply CN SER Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
90.07%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
151.00%
increased by 58.73%
1 Month
1,024.09%
increased by 931.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.5408 | 0.90 |
| βGARCH | 0.5053 | 7.95*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -0.83 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5391 | 2.23** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4609 | 2.67*** |
0.796
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5408 | 0.90 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5053 | 7.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.83 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5391 | 2.23** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4609 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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