V-Lab
Cheetah NET Suply CN SER Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
78.44%
decreased by 11.84%
1 Week
85.69%
decreased by 4.59%
1 Month
89.19%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0345 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.2709 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2575 | 2.02** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.4063 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 18.7738 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -40.7447 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 42.0182 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -43.0856 | -1.43 |
| γ6 | 50.2266 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -49.6389 | -2.09** |
| γ8 | 60.8821 | 2.38** |
| γ9 | -72.5593 | -2.20** |
| γ10 | 48.0876 | 2.07** |
0.528
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0345 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2709 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2575 | 2.02** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.4063 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 18.7738 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -40.7447 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 42.0182 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -43.0856 | -1.43 |
| γ6 | 50.2266 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -49.6389 | -2.09** |
| γ8 | 60.8821 | 2.38** |
| γ9 | -72.5593 | -2.20** |
| γ10 | 48.0876 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.528
Half-life:
1 days
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