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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short BMNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

135.77%

decreased by 5.57%

1 Week

168.04%

increased by 26.70%

1 Month

396.60%

increased by 255.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Short BMNR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0606
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6865
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1016
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0076
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3112
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6144

Persistence:

0.798

Half-life:

3 days