V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Short BMNR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
143.44%
increased by 5.32%
1 Week
145.01%
increased by 6.89%
1 Month
150.66%
increased by 12.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8417 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9285 | 50.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1201 | -1.82* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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