V-Lab
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.22%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
47.71%
increased by 2.62%
1 Month
53.36%
increased by 8.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 61% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 11.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6996 | 17.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 2.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6430 | 0.72 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5459 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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