V-Lab
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.21%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
41.82%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
44.62%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2593 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1528 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7135 | 22.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2559 | -4.20*** |
| γ2 | 0.2857 | 3.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.0237 | -0.75 |
| γ4 | -0.0028 | -0.12 |
| γ5 | 0.0149 | 0.65 |
| γ6 | -0.0228 | -1.12 |
| γ7 | -0.0015 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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