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Amazon.com Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

26.58%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

28.57%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

31.37%

increased by 4.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3039
5.91***
αARCH0.1315
6.10***
βGARCH0.6986
18.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1085
-1.98**
γ20.0553
0.64
γ30.1939
2.50**
γ4-0.2803
-3.55***
γ50.2342
3.03***
γ6-0.1559
-2.06**
γ70.1498
1.91*
γ8-0.1486
-2.10**
γ90.0741
1.76*

0.830

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3039
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1315
6.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6986
18.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1085
-1.98**
γ20.0553
0.64
γ30.1939
2.50**
γ4-0.2803
-3.55***
γ50.2342
3.03***
γ6-0.1559
-2.06**
γ70.1498
1.91*
γ8-0.1486
-2.10**
γ90.0741
1.76*

Persistence:

0.830

Half-life:

4 days