V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
26.58%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
28.57%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
31.37%
increased by 4.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3039 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1315 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6986 | 18.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1085 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 0.0553 | 0.64 |
| γ3 | 0.1939 | 2.50** |
| γ4 | -0.2803 | -3.55*** |
| γ5 | 0.2342 | 3.03*** |
| γ6 | -0.1559 | -2.06** |
| γ7 | 0.1498 | 1.91* |
| γ8 | -0.1486 | -2.10** |
| γ9 | 0.0741 | 1.76* |
0.830
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3039 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1315 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6986 | 18.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1085 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 0.0553 | 0.64 |
| γ3 | 0.1939 | 2.50** |
| γ4 | -0.2803 | -3.55*** |
| γ5 | 0.2342 | 3.03*** |
| γ6 | -0.1559 | -2.06** |
| γ7 | 0.1498 | 1.91* |
| γ8 | -0.1486 | -2.10** |
| γ9 | 0.0741 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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