V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.18%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
30.32%
increased by 2.42%
1 Month
31.96%
increased by 4.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2892 | 5.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.1321 | 6.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6952 | 18.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.0564 | 0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.1960 | 2.53** |
| γ4 | -0.2825 | -3.58*** |
| γ5 | 0.2356 | 3.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.1571 | -2.07** |
| γ7 | 0.1508 | 1.92* |
| γ8 | -0.1482 | -2.09** |
| γ9 | 0.0727 | 1.73* |
0.827
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2892 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6952 | 18.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.0564 | 0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.1960 | 2.53** |
| γ4 | -0.2825 | -3.58*** |
| γ5 | 0.2356 | 3.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.1571 | -2.07** |
| γ7 | 0.1508 | 1.92* |
| γ8 | -0.1482 | -2.09** |
| γ9 | 0.0727 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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