V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.40%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
35.21%
increased by 2.88%
1 Month
37.80%
increased by 5.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2746 | 5.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1300 | 6.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6990 | 18.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1152 | -2.08** |
| γ2 | 0.0613 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | 0.1990 | 2.56** |
| γ4 | -0.2909 | -3.68*** |
| γ5 | 0.2471 | 3.19*** |
| γ6 | -0.1710 | -2.23** |
| γ7 | 0.1706 | 2.08** |
| γ8 | -0.1857 | -2.31** |
| γ9 | 0.1655 | 1.96* |
0.829
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2746 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6990 | 18.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1152 | -2.08** |
| γ2 | 0.0613 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | 0.1990 | 2.56** |
| γ4 | -0.2909 | -3.68*** |
| γ5 | 0.2471 | 3.19*** |
| γ6 | -0.1710 | -2.23** |
| γ7 | 0.1706 | 2.08** |
| γ8 | -0.1857 | -2.31** |
| γ9 | 0.1655 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
Other Amazon.com Inc Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities