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V-Lab
V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.40%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

35.21%

increased by 2.88%

1 Month

37.80%

increased by 5.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2746
5.79***
αARCH0.1300
6.21***
βGARCH0.6990
18.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1152
-2.08**
γ20.0613
0.70
γ30.1990
2.56**
γ4-0.2909
-3.68***
γ50.2471
3.19***
γ6-0.1710
-2.23**
γ70.1706
2.08**
γ8-0.1857
-2.31**
γ90.1655
1.96*

0.829

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2746
5.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1300
6.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6990
18.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1152
-2.08**
γ20.0613
0.70
γ30.1990
2.56**
γ4-0.2909
-3.68***
γ50.2471
3.19***
γ6-0.1710
-2.23**
γ70.1706
2.08**
γ8-0.1857
-2.31**
γ90.1655
1.96*

Persistence:

0.829

Half-life:

4 days