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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

38.59%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

39.10%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

41.11%

increased by 2.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Amazon.com Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0194
2.99***
αARCH0.0409
4.17***
βGARCH0.9591
92.87***
γleverage0.3922
2.47**
δpower0.5499
1.54

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0194
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0409
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9591
92.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3922
2.47**
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5499
1.54

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days