V-Lab
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
13.59%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
14.07%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
15.48%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 286.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1811 | 35.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0715 | 1.74* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3680 | 1.75* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5676 | 2.28** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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